Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
